This year we highlight the Albanese Government’s Future Made in Australia policy and identify how this could stimulate investment in projects in the energy transition and critical minerals sectors. We also discuss the new merger reforms to Australian anti-trust law which investors will need to navigate when embarking upon acquisitions in 2026 and beyond.

The second Trump administration is the stand-out development of 2025. The trade policies of his administration are already proving unpredictable, but it seems inevitable that the US will impose tariffs on China and other nations, and even those that run a trade surplus with the US may face new barriers to US markets. As China is the largest two way trading partner with many countries in the Asia Pacific, including Australia, any trade war induced impact on China’s economy will have adverse flow-on effects in other parts of the region.

The Australia Japan bilateral relationship did not miss a beat in 2024. Deal activity returned to pre-COVID peaks with the bullish A$9 billion Altium acquisition by Renesas Electronics being the largest Japanese M&A deal of the year. Our client J-POWER acquired ASX listed pumped hydro company Genex under a scheme of arrangement with an implied value of A$1 billion. The industrial sector saw two Japanese steel mills acquiring a minority interest in the Blackwater metallurgical coal mine Whitehaven acquired from BHP, but most deals focussed on real estate, with a stampede of Japanese investors partnering with Australian property majors (Mirvac, Dexus, Lendlease) across the asset class (build to rent, office and residential).

The Korea Australia relationship was also upbeat in 2024, most notably exemplified by Hanwha Aerospace / Defence bringing on-line a new world class facility in Geelong to manufacture armoured vehicles for the Australian Federal Government. While domestically Korea is coming to grips with the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, this has not dampened the broader bilateral relationship.

Korea’s standing as a batteries powerhouse was enhanced by LG Solutions’ US$250 million convertible notes investment in ASX listed Liontown Resources to fund the Kathleen Valley lithium mine ramp-up. This investment foreshadowed a potential IRA compliant lithium processing plant, a development which would be supported under the Government’s Future Made in Australia policy agenda discussed in this report.

2024 saw a continuation of the Albanese Government’s considered and calibrated policy on relations with China. There was a successful focus on the removal of all outstanding tariffs imposed during the prior administration, visits by senior leaders, trade delegations and exchanges under various formal government programs. China continues to be Australia’s largest trade partner now on a scale not seen since trade with the UK in the 1940’s.

The total value of two-way trade in 2023 was A$325 billion, which has doubled since 2015. An oft-repeated mantra of the Australian Prime Minister highlights the delicate balance that Australian governments maintain to ensure the health of this trade relationship in an increasingly complex geopolitical circumstance – ‘co-operate where we can, disagree where we must and, at all times engage in the national interest’. The long historical trend of increasing China exports also continued but Chinese investment into Australia remained subdued.

While investors from Malaysia generally consolidated their Australian investments during 2024, Singaporean investors were very active with some high profile M&A deals occurring in the private credit and student accommodation asset classes.